In a recent post, I explained why weโre inherently bad at estimating, which is a major reason software projects often run late. But that doesnโt mean we canโt plan ahead for the longer term and manage expectations. Here are some techniques Iโve found effective for longer-term planning, even in the face of uncertainty:
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ ๐ฆ, ๐ก๐ผ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐
Over any reasonable period of time, providing likely delivery dates as a range rather than a fixed date is better. Doing so embraces the inherent variability and help stakeholders better appreciate uncertainty. Giving a fixed date, even when you all know itโs just an estimate, sets false expectations.
๐๐ผ๐ปโ๐ ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ โฑ, ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ช
Along with estimating how long a task might take, assess how confident you are in that estimate. Is it something weโve done before and know well? High confidence. Is it new, complex, or something weโve never tackled before? Medium or Low confidence.Multiply time by confidence. For example, a โSmallโ task (e.g. 1-3 days) with “Low” confidence can be re-forecast as 1-7 days.
๐๐ผ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ฒ๐ฟ๐บ ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐จ
Effective planning isnโt just about setting expectations on delivery, but managing risks over the project lifecycle. All those estimates which have come in as Large or with Medium-Low confidence? Those are your biggest risks and represent the most uncertainty. Identify risks early, identify potential mitigations, highlight those risks to stakeholders.
๐๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ข๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐บ ๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐ ๐
Whilst you canโt completely mitigate against this, there are things you can do to be a bit less vulnerable. Involve the entire team in estimates, account for full end to end delivery (not just developer time) and factor in holidays, sickness and other factors that could impact delivery.Also, those ranged forecasts which provide a cumulative lowest range for all the work? Highly unlikely due to optimism bias! Itโs probably best not to present the most optimistic forecast for this reason.
๐ก๐ผ ๐ฆ๐ถ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐๐น๐น๐ฒ๐, ๐๐๐ ๐ฎ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต
These practices wonโt eliminate uncertainty or guarantee perfect outcomes – there’s no silver bullet in longer term planning. However, Iโve found they help organisations plan more realistically, reducing the stress and frustration that often come with missed deadlines, and enabling more effective, adaptable strategies in the face of uncertainty.